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Demand Calculation
#1
I've finished part one of the new formula. yay! Big Grin

Download (Excel + word document)
Pjank: I don't know but I think excel might not translate the formulas, causing it to error. If so you have to change the language in excel to Dutch (Belgium) / [Nederlands (België)].

I'm quite satisfied with the outcome. All flights I tested from Brussels airport matched the real life traffic.
I also tested with other airports to many destinations and they all seemed to match real life too.

But please test it for your home airports and see what you think. Smile


you will find the route creator in the tab named 'Demand Calculator' in excel.

In the word document you will find all factors I think we need for the calculation of the filling degree.
If you could please read it, and tell me your thoughts, then I can start constructing that formula as well. Smile

At the bottom of the document you will find the explanation how I built the formula in excel.

I know it's New Year this night, and this paper is 15 pages long.
I don't expect you to read through it now (unless you want to, go ahead!), do it whenever you feel like it and have the time. Smile




Now, I have one problem.
I somewhere saw pjank say demand is precalculated. Undecided
I can imagine those hundreds of thousands of possible lines between airports is too much to calculate constantly.

Is there anything we can do to make it calculated yearly?
If not, what does this mean for the historical demand? That if you start your game in 1950, the demand will be stuck like it was in 1950?
That's a bit sad.. Sad
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#2
The demand is precalculated but it is per year, so it is possible to have different demand between airports in 1950 and in 2010. I will read the document and Excel sheet as soon as I have fixed the current bugs (and that much text isn't a good thing to read on 1st of January :-))
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#3
Types of passenger is a great idea, and something I have also though about earlier
Types of airport has actually what I meant for the season tag in the airports files, so that would be a great thing to have :-)

For business trips I have a lot of experience, and have been both on smaller trips (went from Aarhus to Warsaw around 30 times over a five year period) and also on longer trips like for conventions in Las Vegas (once a year). For the smaller trips it is very important that there are both morning and evening flights, and that it is throughout the whole week. For the longer trips it is just important that it has daily flights.

Stopover flights is something on the todo list, I just haven't started it yet :-)

In version 1 the demand didn't use the cities, but it looked for demand of nearby airports as well. So if you had a route between CPH and LHR then it also used the demand between CPH og LCY if that route didn't exist. The main issue here was the performance.

Overall a lot of the things you have here was also a part of my idea for version 1, so let us just go ahead and implement it :-) And then I will have to figure out a way of getting the performance optimized

Let us also agree on which things needs to be implemented in what order
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#4
Awesome to hear most things were implemented/on the idea list for v1! Smile

So 'alternative airports' is a hard one on the performance. Let's skip that one for now then..
Maybe if we feel like it one day we could try it out.



I assume you kind of worked the same way: calculating a factor or maximum demand between two airports.
And than you that maximum demand for calculating the filling degree based on other factors?

Have you had a look at the excel?
Do you think the demand from Copenhagen seems realistic?
If so, you can go ahead and implement that formula first, as it is the basis. Smile
I explained at the end of the document how I constructed the formula.

Then I deem these factors the most important for the filling degree calculation:
-Types of passengers (has an influence on all other factors, how much the maximum tourists/business demand is, is calculated in the previous part)
-Demand for airliner classes

-Flight frequency
-Departure time

-Connecting flights (stopover flights can be done later)
-The kinds of reputations
-Cooperations/Airline facilities/advertisements

I bet, for testing purposes, it is best to implement them in these order, with a dev release between each group?
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#5
I just realised I don't want to define the airport types for all 4000 airports in the game by march.
Neither do I want to define the country relations by then.

Can we consider them all the same until I define a value for the airports?
I'll define the airport types while implementing them for the historic data.
And the country relations whenever I start a new country in that project.

So for now, consider all country relations and travel destinations in both directions like:
80 - 80

and the airport types:
ntlBusDep: 0
ntlBusArr: 0
busDep:20
busArr: 20
cityArr:0
cityWinArr:0
holDep:20
holArr:20
holSumArr: 30
holWinArr: 30
holSumDep: 30
holWinArr:30


That will do until I implement the new data. Smile
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#6
Sorry for the triple post. Rolleyes

I found this Wikipedia about busiest routes.
It turns out the LHR - JFK route isn't even close to the busiest route my formula can't reach.

Question: do we want to implement these routes as they are in real life?
The busiest route has an average daily demand of 27 000 passengers...


If we do want to implement this, how do we implement it?
The easiest way would be to include a list with all these routes (at least the ones my formula doesn't calculate correct).
But I assume it's not very efficient to have the game go through a list to see what factor it should use for that route.

I tried raising demand on domestic routes, but it also raises demand on some unwanted routes..

Any idea?
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#7
I looked at the Excel sheet and the demand from Copenhagen look very much as I would have expected it, so I guess the formula could be used :-)

So I will start looking at types of passengers and then move forward

Regarding the airport types we just consider them the same until we get the specific ones defined. That is how I normal do the changes like that

I am not sure that we need to have the busiest routes implemented like the real life, so for me it is ok to have some routes where your formula isn't calculated correct
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#8
Ok, that's cool. Thanks! Smile
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#9
I will do it as a stand alone decoupled from the actually game, so I am able to develop on both the new demand way and fix other stuff at the same time
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#10
First question:
How do we define what is summer/winter/offseason per airport/country?
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